Chelmsford City 0-4 Dorking Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.5
No
50%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.61
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
2.87
6+ Goals
12%
8.14
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.61 — our 30% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
16%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.0pp
50%
BTTS No
38%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Dorking Wanderers EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.35/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.72
-4% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelmsford City
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Dorking Wanderers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
19.02.2022 Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
04.09.2021 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 2-2 HT 1-1 Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers İCON
15.02.2020 Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
09.11.2019 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 2-2 HT 1-0 Dorking Wanderers Dorking Wanderers İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelmsford City
0-4
AWAY Dorking Wanderers
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelmsford City vs Dorking Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dorking Wanderers ran out comfortable winners over Chelmsford City 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Dorking Wanderers found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Chelmsford City had 43% of the ball to Dorking Wanderers's 57%, shots finished 11-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Dorking Wanderers led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chelmsford City and 2.00 for Dorking Wanderers.

What was the final score of Chelmsford City vs Dorking Wanderers?

Chelmsford City 0-4 Dorking Wanderers in the England - Conference on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelmsford City vs Dorking Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chelmsford City 40%, draw 26%, Dorking Wanderers 34%. The final score 0-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✗ Under 2.5
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