Scunthorpe United 2-3 Buxton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.62
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 27% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-6.8pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.0pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Scunthorpe United EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Buxton EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.82/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.56
-2% / +81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
428 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Scunthorpe United
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Buxton
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 4
23.12.2023 Buxton Buxton 0-0 HT 0-0 Scunthorpe United Scunthorpe United İCON
30.09.2023 Scunthorpe United Scunthorpe United 0-3 HT 0-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
09.09.2023 Scunthorpe United Scunthorpe United 1-2 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Scunthorpe United
2-3
AWAY Buxton
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Scunthorpe United vs Buxton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buxton edged past Scunthorpe United 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Scunthorpe United at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Scunthorpe United had 54% of the ball to Buxton's 46%, shots finished 11-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Buxton led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Scunthorpe United and 1.67 for Buxton.

What was the final score of Scunthorpe United vs Buxton?

Scunthorpe United 2-3 Buxton in the England - Conference on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Scunthorpe United vs Buxton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Scunthorpe United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Scunthorpe United 54%, draw 25%, Buxton 21%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Scunthorpe United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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