Lancaster City 4-3 Ilkeston Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
41%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.07
Over 2.5
42%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
42%
-9.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
41%
Away Win
33%
+7.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+14.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-14.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lancaster City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilkeston Town EU Bookmakers 37%
+9% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.21/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.57
-22% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
345 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lancaster City
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Ilkeston Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
10.02.2024 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town 2-3 Lancaster City Lancaster City İNGNLP
23.09.2023 Lancaster City Lancaster City 0-4 HT 0-2 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lancaster City edged past Ilkeston Town 4-3. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ilkeston Town at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lancaster City and 3.00 for Ilkeston Town.

What was the final score of Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town?

Lancaster City 4-3 Ilkeston Town in the England - Non League Premier on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ilkeston Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lancaster City 32%, draw 27%, Ilkeston Town 41%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ilkeston Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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