Grazer AK 2-1 Swarovski Tirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.09
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.79 — our 25% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.57
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
15%
4.21
X/2
11%
7.72
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.99
2/X
7%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grazer AK EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +5%
1.00/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.63
+23% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 71%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
29.0 Crosses 16.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grazer AK
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.63 xG 0.29
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
255 Passes 397
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
22.09.2021 Grazer AK Grazer AK 2-4 HT 2-2 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grazer AK
2-1
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
1.34 xG 1.37
32% Ball Possession 68%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
211 Passes 535
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Grazer AK vs Swarovski Tirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grazer AK squeezed past Swarovski Tirol 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Grazer AK as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Grazer AK had 32% of the ball to Swarovski Tirol's 68%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.34 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Swarovski Tirol led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Grazer AK and 2.00 for Swarovski Tirol.

What was the final score of Grazer AK vs Swarovski Tirol?

Grazer AK 2-1 Swarovski Tirol in the Austria - Bundesliga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grazer AK vs Swarovski Tirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grazer AK win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Grazer AK 49%, draw 25%, Swarovski Tirol 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grazer AK), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Grazer AK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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