Hartberg 1-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.36
1/2
5%
24.45
1/X
5%
14.55
X/1
9%
7.17
X/2
20%
4.34
X/X
11%
4.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.68
2/X
9%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+5.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
43%
Away Win
48%
-4.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartberg EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 51%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +15%
1.12/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.15
-5% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
274 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 75%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
16.0 Crosses 19.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartberg
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.05 xG 1.79
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
333 Passes 251
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
05.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 0-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
14.04.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
10.03.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
21.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
18.02.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 1-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartberg
1-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.40 xG 1.23
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
256 Passes 386
68% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 37
22 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz edged past Hartberg 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hartberg had 43% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 57%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.40 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hartberg and 1.83 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?

Hartberg 1-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hartberg 33%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5
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