Sturm Graz 1-1 Hartberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.7
X/1
19%
3.74
X/2
6%
12.5
X/X
6%
6.27
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
8%
9.48
2/X
7%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
63%
-4.3pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.1pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartberg EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.10/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.92
+13% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
329 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 70%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
20.5 Crosses 12.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Hartberg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.09 xG 0.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
259 Passes 257
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
27 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
10.03.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
21.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
18.02.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 1-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
03.09.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
27.02.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-1
AWAY Hartberg
0.84 xG 2.16
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
248 Passes 484
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Hartberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz and Hartberg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sturm Graz at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 38% of the ball to Hartberg's 62%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.84 to 2.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.67 for Hartberg.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Hartberg?

Sturm Graz 1-1 Hartberg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Hartberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 59%, draw 21%, Hartberg 20%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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