Hartberg 1-3 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 14 Apr 2024

Hartberg
1-3 HT 0-1
Sturm Graz
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.13
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
42%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.37
2-3 Goals
45%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 24% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
7.4
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
6%
9.52
X/2
15%
4.03
X/X
12%
4.89
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.22
2/X
11%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+7.1pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.7pp
42%
Away Win
54%
-11.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hartberg v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartberg EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 58%
+9% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +22%
1.03/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.05
+14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +28%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
230 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 77%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
13.4 Crosses 19.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartberg
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.65 xG 2.05
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
225 Passes 287
64% Pass Accuracy 71%
11 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
21.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
18.02.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 1-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
03.09.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
27.02.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
03.10.2021 Hartberg Hartberg 3-2 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU

Hartberg 1-3 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartberg
1-3
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.67 xG 2.28
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
348 Passes 212
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz saw off Hartberg 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hartberg had 60% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 40%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 0.67 to 2.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hartberg and 1.67 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?

Hartberg 1-3 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hartberg 28%, draw 30%, Sturm Graz 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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