Hartberg 1-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 10 Mar 2024

Hartberg
1-1 HT 0-1
Sturm Graz
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
33%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.78
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.2
6+ Goals
10%
20.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 35% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.94
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
16%
6.45
X/2
9%
4.65
X/X
16%
4.17
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.11
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+7.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.6pp
33%
Away Win
42%
-9.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hartberg v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartberg EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.24/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.29
+4% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
291 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 72%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
16.7 Crosses 18.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartberg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.59 xG 2.14
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
225 Passes 300
64% Pass Accuracy 72%
11 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
18.02.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 1-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
03.09.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
27.02.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
03.10.2021 Hartberg Hartberg 3-2 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
26.01.2021 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU

Hartberg 1-1 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartberg
1-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.70 xG 1.48
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
208 Passes 202
62% Pass Accuracy 64%
17 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartberg and Sturm Graz shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Hartberg had 51% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 49%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.70 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hartberg and 1.83 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?

Hartberg 1-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartberg win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Hartberg 37%, draw 29%, Sturm Graz 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hartberg), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hartberg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVU More Austria - Bundesliga
10 Mar 2024
19:00 Wolfsberger AC vs Rheindorf Altach Analysis →
19:00 Austria Klagenfurt vs Rapid Wien Analysis →
19:00 Austria Lustenau vs Blau-Weiss Linz Analysis →
19:00 Austria Wien vs Swarovski Tirol Analysis →