Sturm Graz 2-0 Hartberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.52 — our 26% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.98
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.65
X/1
14%
3.93
X/2
8%
10.5
X/X
12%
6.26
2/1
9%
20.55
2/2
13%
7.57
2/X
6%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
59%
-11.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.5pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.5pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartberg EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
2.04/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.71
+9% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
323 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 66%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
20.1 Crosses 13.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Hartberg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.87 xG 0.97
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
258 Passes 303
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 0-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
14.04.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
10.03.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
21.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
18.02.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 1-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
03.09.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
2-0
AWAY Hartberg
2.32 xG 0.89
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
334 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 8
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Hartberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz saw off Hartberg 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 53% of the ball to Hartberg's 47%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.32 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Hartberg.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Hartberg?

Sturm Graz 2-0 Hartberg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Hartberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 48%, draw 25%, Hartberg 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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