Levski Sofia 2-3 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.22
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
18%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.53
No
60%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
78%
-13.9pp
18%
Draw
16%
+2.3pp
18%
Away Win
7%
+11.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
36%
+4.8pp
60%
BTTS No
64%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Levski Sofia EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.73/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/1.79
-21% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +13%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
487 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Levski Sofia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.05.2023 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 2-0 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Levski Sofia
2-3
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 7
14 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia nicked a narrow win over Levski Sofia 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Levski Sofia at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Levski Sofia had 60% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 40%, shots finished 23-12.

What was the final score of Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?

Levski Sofia 2-3 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Levski Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Levski Sofia 64%, draw 18%, Septemvri Sofia 18%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Levski Sofia) ✗ BTTS No
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