Lorient 3-1 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
24%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.06
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.06 — our 24% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
2.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
9%
4.4
X/2
5%
8.15
X/X
12%
5.32
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
14%
5.75
2/X
7%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
24%
Away Win
25%
-1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.9pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lorient EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.36/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.36
-20% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.7 Crosses 17.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lorient
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guingamp
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.18 xG 1.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
350 Passes 345
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient HAZ
22.07.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 0-2 HT 0-1 Lorient Lorient HAZ
16.12.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 1-0 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient HAZ
08.02.2020 Guingamp Guingamp 2-1 HT 1-1 Lorient Lorient FR2
16.11.2019 Lorient Lorient 3-0 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FRK
31.08.2019 Lorient Lorient 0-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lorient
3-1
AWAY Guingamp
1.87 xG 1.02
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
332 Passes 483
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Lorient vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient got the better of Guingamp 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lorient as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lorient had 42% of the ball to Guingamp's 58%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.87 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lorient and 0.83 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Lorient vs Guingamp?

Lorient 3-1 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lorient vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lorient win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lorient 50%, draw 26%, Guingamp 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lorient) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lorient) ✗ BTTS No
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