Metz 1-0 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 9 Nov 2024

Metz
1-0 HT 1-0
Caen
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Metz vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 30% vs market 23.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.99
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.1
X/1
22%
3.75
X/2
6%
10.95
X/X
12%
5.42
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
9%
8.75
2/X
6%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Metz v Caen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metz EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.85/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.37
+9% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.4 Crosses 18.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Metz vs Caen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Caen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.95 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
391 Passes 294
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.02.2023 Metz Metz 0-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
08.08.2022 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR2
21.04.2018 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR1
07.02.2018 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FRK
26.08.2017 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
15.04.2017 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR1

Metz 1-0 Caen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
1-0
AWAY Caen
1.31 xG 1.65
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
374 Passes 457
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Metz vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metz edged past Caen 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Metz as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Metz had 46% of the ball to Caen's 54%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.31 to 1.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Metz and 1.17 for Caen.

What was the final score of Metz vs Caen?

Metz 1-0 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metz vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Metz 55%, draw 24%, Caen 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Metz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Metz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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