Queretaro 3-2 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.91
Over
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.41
2-3
41%
1.79
4-5
21%
3.47
6+
8%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.41 — our 30% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.6pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.16/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.71
-21% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.5 Crosses 15.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.24
47% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
260 Passes 306
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 0-1 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
03.07.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
24.04.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
11.09.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 3-3 HT 2-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
17.04.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
31.10.2021 Queretaro Queretaro 2-3 HT 0-2 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
3-2
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.40 xG 0.64
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
257 Passes 485
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro edged past Santos Laguna 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Queretaro as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Queretaro had 37% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 63%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 2.40 to 0.64 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Queretaro's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Queretaro and 1.33 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Santos Laguna?

Queretaro 3-2 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Queretaro win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 41%, draw 27%, Santos Laguna 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Queretaro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Queretaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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