Olimpia Elblag 1-3 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
53%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
3.0
6+ Goals
11%
9.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.25 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
36%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.9pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.2pp
53%
Away Win
55%
-2.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.0pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olimpia Elblag EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki EU Bookmakers 60%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
1.66/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
+43% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olimpia Elblag
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
01.05.2022 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1-0 HT 0-0 Olimpia Elblag Olimpia Elblag POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olimpia Elblag
1-3
AWAY Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Olimpia Elblag vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki saw off Olimpia Elblag 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Olimpia Elblag had 46% of the ball to Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki's 54%, shots finished 6-13.

What was the final score of Olimpia Elblag vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

Olimpia Elblag 1-3 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki in the Poland - 2nd Division on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olimpia Elblag vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Olimpia Elblag 26%, draw 21%, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 53%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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