Neftekhimik 1-2 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
19%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
+0.4pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.0pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.0pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftekhimik EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 50%
+9% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.30/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.64
+28% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +59%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
191 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftekhimik
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.10.2024 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
29.04.2023 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 0-0 HT 0-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS1
09.10.2022 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-2 HT 1-1 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
17.11.2021 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 0-0 HT 0-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS1
08.08.2021 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
28.04.2021 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 2-1 HT 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS1
POST-MATCH Neftekhimik vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baltika Kaliningrad edged past Neftekhimik 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Baltika Kaliningrad as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftekhimik had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Neftekhimik and 0.50 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of Neftekhimik vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Neftekhimik 1-2 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - FNL on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftekhimik vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Baltika Kaliningrad win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Neftekhimik 26%, draw 33%, Baltika Kaliningrad 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Baltika Kaliningrad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Baltika Kaliningrad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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