Nottingham Forest 3-1 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 9 Nov 2025

Nottingham Forest
3-1 HT 1-1
Leeds United
📅09/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.04
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.59
Over Pick
51%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.44
2-3
41%
1.76
4-5
22%
4.69
6+
11%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.17
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.81
X/2
8%
6.86
X/X
8%
3.89
2/1 ✗
6%
31.0
2/2
16%
5.5
2/X
9%
14.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 6% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
43%
+4.8pp
23%
Draw
29%
-6.2pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
59%
-10.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
41%
+10.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nottingham Forest v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 31%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -23%
1.36/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.77
-7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
18.6 Crosses 17.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Leeds United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 1.69
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
160 Passes 424
61% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.04.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 2-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
05.02.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-0 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
08.02.2020 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-0 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
10.08.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
01.01.2019 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 4-2 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
27.10.2018 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL

Nottingham Forest 3-1 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
3-1
AWAY Leeds United
2.55 xG 0.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
277 Passes 353
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest saw off Leeds United 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nottingham Forest as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 45% of the ball to Leeds United's 55%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.55 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.00 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Nottingham Forest 3-1 Leeds United in the England - Premier League on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 48%, draw 23%, Leeds United 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nottingham Forest), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✓ Over 2.5
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İNP More England - Premier League
9 Nov 2025
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