Chonburi 4-2 Buriram United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 9 Nov 2025

Chonburi
4-2 HT 1-0
Buriram United
📅09/11/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Thailand - 1st Division – 2025/2026

Chonburi vs Buriram United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
5.4
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
64%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
3%
2/2
43%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
15%
-1.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.1pp
64%
Away Win
64%
+0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.0pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chonburi v Buriram United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chonburi EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Buriram United EU Bookmakers 69%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +2%
1.03/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/0.84
+2% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +30%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
213 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
15.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
12.5 Crosses 21.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Chonburi vs Buriram United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chonburi
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Buriram United
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.18 xG 1.65
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
280 Passes 290
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Chonburi Chonburi 1-1 HT 0-1 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
29.01.2023 Buriram United Buriram United 2-0 HT 1-0 Chonburi Chonburi TAY
27.08.2022 Chonburi Chonburi 2-3 HT 1-3 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
09.03.2022 Buriram United Buriram United 2-1 HT 1-0 Chonburi Chonburi TAY
13.11.2021 Chonburi Chonburi 2-0 HT 0-0 Buriram United Buriram United TAY

Chonburi 4-2 Buriram United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chonburi
4-2
AWAY Buriram United
1.35 xG 2.55
18% Ball Possession 82%
9 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
82 Passes 528
63% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 48
7 Crosses 46
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chonburi vs Buriram United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chonburi beat Buriram United 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Buriram United at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Chonburi had 18% of the ball to Buriram United's 82%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.35 to 2.55 — the balance of chances actually favoured Buriram United.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Buriram United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Chonburi and 1.60 for Buriram United.

What was the final score of Chonburi vs Buriram United?

Chonburi 4-2 Buriram United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chonburi vs Buriram United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Buriram United win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Chonburi 14%, draw 22%, Buriram United 64%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Buriram United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Buriram United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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