BG Pathum United 1-1 Rayong FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 9 Nov 2025

📅09/11/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
20%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
53%
+3.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
20%
Away Win
24%
-3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayong FC EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.33/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/0.84
-6% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
341 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 76%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
21.4 Crosses 20.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Rayong FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.79 xG 1.39
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
464 Passes 184
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.01.2025 Rayong FC 1-1 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
16.08.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0-1 HT 0-1 Rayong FC TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
1-1
AWAY Rayong FC
1.77 xG 0.56
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
422 Passes 257
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United and Rayong FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had BG Pathum United at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 60% of the ball to Rayong FC's 40%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.77 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Rayong FC led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.00 for Rayong FC.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC?

BG Pathum United 1-1 Rayong FC in the Thailand - 1st Division on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 57%, draw 23%, Rayong FC 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BG Pathum United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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