OFK Beograd 1-1 Novi Pazar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 9 Dec 2024

📅09/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME OFK Beograd EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 29%
+24% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
3.14/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.24
+150% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
321 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
Crosses 14.1
Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME OFK Beograd
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Novi Pazar
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.62 xG 1.19
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
303 Passes 319
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.08.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-0 HT 0-0 OFK Beograd OFK Beograd SIRP
31.08.2014 OFK Beograd OFK Beograd 3-2 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
15.03.2014 OFK Beograd OFK Beograd 0-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME OFK Beograd
1-1
AWAY Novi Pazar
1.66 xG 0.54
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 0
355 Passes 251
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 10
32 Crosses 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

OFK Beograd and Novi Pazar couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was OFK Beograd at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, OFK Beograd had 59% of the ball to Novi Pazar's 41%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.66 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for OFK Beograd and 1.00 for Novi Pazar.

What was the final score of OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar?

OFK Beograd 1-1 Novi Pazar in the Serbia - Super League on 09/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar?

Before kick-off our model rated a OFK Beograd win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split OFK Beograd 45%, draw 25%, Novi Pazar 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (OFK Beograd), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (OFK Beograd) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SIRP More Serbia - Super League
9 Dec 2024
18:00 IMT Novi Beograd vs Napredak Krusevac Analysis →
20:00 Radnicki Nis vs Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac Analysis →