Southport 3-1 Brackley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
42%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.82
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
19.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 30% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
42%
Away Win
48%
-5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southport EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Brackley Town EU Bookmakers 52%
-3% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.09/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.80
-13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +61%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
188 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southport
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Brackley Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Brackley Town Brackley Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
04.03.2023 Brackley Town Brackley Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
08.11.2022 Southport Southport 2-2 HT 1-1 Brackley Town Brackley Town İCON
05.03.2022 Southport Southport 0-0 HT 0-0 Brackley Town Brackley Town İCON
11.09.2021 Brackley Town Brackley Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Southport Southport İCON
18.02.2020 Brackley Town Brackley Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southport
3-1
AWAY Brackley Town
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Southport vs Brackley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport got the better of Brackley Town 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Brackley Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Southport had 39% of the ball to Brackley Town's 61%, shots finished 12-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brackley Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Southport and 0.83 for Brackley Town.

What was the final score of Southport vs Brackley Town?

Southport 3-1 Brackley Town in the England - Conference on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southport vs Brackley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brackley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Southport 28%, draw 30%, Brackley Town 42%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Brackley Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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