Deportivo Alaves 1-1 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 10 Feb 2024

Deportivo Alaves
1-1 HT 1-1
Villarreal
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.11
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.02
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
21%
4.7
X/2
12%
6.45
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
9%
4.7
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+2.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.2pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Deportivo Alaves v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.67/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.39
-10% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.8 Crosses 14.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Alaves
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Villarreal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.45 xG 1.85
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
243 Passes 450
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
30.04.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 2-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
21.12.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 5-2 HT 2-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
21.04.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
30.09.2020 Villarreal Villarreal 3-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
25.01.2020 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-2 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1

Deportivo Alaves 1-1 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Alaves
1-1
AWAY Villarreal
1.79 xG 1.24
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 9
290 Passes 308
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 33
34 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves and Villarreal couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Alaves at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 50% of the ball to Villarreal's 50%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.79 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 2.17 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal?

Deportivo Alaves 1-1 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 45%, draw 27%, Villarreal 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportivo Alaves), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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