Real Madrid 4-0 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 10 Feb 2024

Real Madrid
4-0 HT 2-0
Girona
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Real Madrid vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.98
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.49
2-3 Goals
36%
2.23
4-5 Goals
30%
2.39
6+ Goals
16%
4.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.68
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.8
X/1
12%
3.97
X/2
10%
13.5
X/X
9%
8.26
2/1
5%
17.65
2/2
10%
8.56
2/X
5%
16.7
Value flag · 1/X at 16.8 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
64%
-11.0pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.7pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.4pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 20%
+5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +24%
1.97/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.88
+12% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / +17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
461 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
18.6 Crosses 14.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Real Madrid vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Girona
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.40 xG 1.99
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
507 Passes 345
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
38 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Girona Girona 0-3 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
25.04.2023 Girona Girona 4-2 HT 2-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
30.10.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
17.02.2019 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
31.01.2019 Girona Girona 1-3 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
24.01.2019 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-2 HT 2-1 Girona Girona İSPK

Real Madrid 4-0 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-0
AWAY Girona
3.21 xG 0.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 2
541 Passes 461
93% Pass Accuracy 92%
33 Box Touches 19
8 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid ran out comfortable winners over Girona 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (62%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Real Madrid had 53% of the ball to Girona's 47%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 3.21 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Real Madrid and 1.67 for Girona.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Girona?

Real Madrid 4-0 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 54%, draw 23%, Girona 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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