Velez Sarsfield 3-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒03:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.12
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.82
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.13
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
16%
4.25
X/2
9%
6.47
X/X
18%
3.5
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
15%
5.61
2/X
5%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.3pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.1pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.2pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.0pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.23/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.28
+18% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
304 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 70%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
18.9 Crosses 17.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.12 xG 1.19
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
406 Passes 190
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
18 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 2-1 HT 0-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
31.01.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 3-1 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
14.08.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-1 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
14.09.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
08.05.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-5 HT 0-3 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
29.11.2020 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-1 HT 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
3-1
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
2.97 xG 0.30
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
410 Passes 192
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
34 Box Touches 10
31 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield got the better of Gimnasia La Plata 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 31% — and on the day Velez Sarsfield made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 64% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 36%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.97 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.83 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Velez Sarsfield 3-1 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 38%, draw 31%, Gimnasia La Plata 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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