Newtown 2-3 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
41%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.02
6+ Goals
12%
9.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 28% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
28%
+6.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newtown EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 51%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.07/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.66
-9% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +88%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
269 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newtown
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Connahs Quay
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.12.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-2 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
29.08.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-1 HT 1-1 Newtown Newtown GAL
24.03.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-0 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
11.02.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-1 HT 1-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
07.01.2023 Newtown Newtown 0-0 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
28.10.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-1 HT 2-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newtown
2-3
AWAY Connahs Quay
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Newtown vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay edged past Newtown 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Newtown had 47% of the ball to Connahs Quay's 53%, shots finished 10-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newtown and 1.83 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Newtown vs Connahs Quay?

Newtown 2-3 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newtown vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Newtown 34%, draw 25%, Connahs Quay 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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