Cardiff MU 2-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
36%
3.35
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.56
No
35%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
10.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-5.4pp
36%
Draw
26%
+9.9pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.5pp
65%
BTTS Yes
60%
+5.3pp
35%
BTTS No
40%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.20/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.56
-19% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
322 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
13.01.2024 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 2-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
21.10.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-1 HT 2-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
29.10.2022 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.08.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-1 HT 3-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
06.11.2021 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.09.2021 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU and Caernarfon Town shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 36% / 30%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (65%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cardiff MU and 3.00 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?

Cardiff MU 2-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 34%, draw 36%, Caernarfon Town 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Draw), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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