Excelsior 0-3 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 Feb 2024

Excelsior
0-3 HT 0-3
Twente
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Excelsior vs Twente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.13
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
49%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.92
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
13%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.31
1/2
7%
21.6
1/X
8%
15.25
X/1
9%
9.79
X/2
18%
3.95
X/X
8%
5.49
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.0
2/2
24%
2.08
2/X
6%
14.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 9% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
21%
+7.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
49%
Away Win
55%
-6.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v Twente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 60%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.33/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.10
+12% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +25%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
301 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 82%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.5
22.5 Crosses 21.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Excelsior vs Twente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Twente
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.60 xG 2.13
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
225 Passes 430
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.12.2023 Twente Twente 4-2 HT 1-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
01.04.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 0-0 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
31.08.2022 Twente Twente 4-0 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
23.12.2017 Excelsior Excelsior 0-0 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
27.10.2017 Twente Twente 1-3 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
12.02.2017 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 1-1 Twente Twente HOL

Excelsior 0-3 Twente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
0-3
AWAY Twente
0.94 xG 0.89
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
346 Passes 378
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Twente ran out comfortable winners over Excelsior 3-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Twente as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Excelsior had 48% of the ball to Twente's 52%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.94 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Excelsior and 1.67 for Twente.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Twente?

Excelsior 0-3 Twente in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Twente win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 29%, draw 22%, Twente 49%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Twente), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Twente) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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