Heracles 3-2 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 Feb 2024

Heracles
3-2 HT 1-2
Vitesse
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Heracles vs Vitesse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.36
6+ Goals
11%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 26% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.01
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
14%
4.83
X/2
11%
6.42
X/X
9%
4.7
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
14%
4.47
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heracles v Vitesse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.60/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.42
+4% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
24.9 Crosses 18.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Heracles vs Vitesse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Vitesse
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.90 xG 1.06
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
297 Passes 375
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 2-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
13.03.2022 Heracles Heracles 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
12.12.2021 Vitesse Vitesse 2-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
09.01.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
03.10.2020 Vitesse Vitesse 3-0 HT 2-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
22.01.2020 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOK

Heracles 3-2 Vitesse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
3-2
AWAY Vitesse
1.90 xG 0.76
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
381 Passes 323
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heracles vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles nicked a narrow win over Vitesse 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Heracles as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Heracles had 54% of the ball to Vitesse's 46%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.90 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitesse led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Heracles and 1.83 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of Heracles vs Vitesse?

Heracles 3-2 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heracles win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Heracles 47%, draw 23%, Vitesse 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heracles), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heracles) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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