Nacional 3-2 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.4pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.2pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 21%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.44/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/2.17
+71% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.1 Crosses 20.7
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Vilaverdense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.15 xG 0.64
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 9
252 Passes 350
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 4
03.09.2023 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 1-2 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
3-2
AWAY Vilaverdense
1.74 xG 0.97
60% Ball Possession 40%
28 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
322 Passes 195
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
37 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional squeezed past Vilaverdense 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Nacional had 60% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 40%, shots finished 28-9, expected goals 1.74 to 0.97.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Vilaverdense?

Nacional 3-2 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Nacional 54%, draw 26%, Vilaverdense 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✓ Over 2.5
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