Moreirense 1-0 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 10 Feb 2024

Moreirense
1-0 HT 0-0
Chaves
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Moreirense vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.62
Over 2.5
50%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.52
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
4.58
6+ Goals
10%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.54
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
10%
14.5
X/1
12%
3.98
X/2
12%
7.99
X/X
11%
4.01
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
9%
6.74
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
58%
-8.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
42%
+8.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Moreirense v Chaves — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -9%
1.45/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.62
+15% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 71%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
23.1 Crosses 19.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Moreirense vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Chaves
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.71 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
251 Passes 263
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Chaves Chaves 1-2 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
29.05.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
21.05.2022 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
20.04.2019 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR
15.12.2018 Chaves Chaves 1-2 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
18.02.2018 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR

Moreirense 1-0 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
1-0
AWAY Chaves
1.68 xG 0.89
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 4
314 Passes 338
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense squeezed past Chaves 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Moreirense as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Moreirense had 49% of the ball to Chaves's 51%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.68 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Moreirense and 1.00 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Chaves?

Moreirense 1-0 Chaves in the Portugal - Premier League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 44%, draw 27%, Chaves 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreirense) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Moreirense) ✗ BTTS Yes
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