Aston Villa 0-4 Tottenham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 10 Mar 2024

Aston Villa
0-4 HT 0-0
Tottenham
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.89
Over 2.5
65%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.35
No
36%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
6.83
2-3 Goals
36%
2.16
4-5 Goals
28%
2.48
6+ Goals
20%
4.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.21
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
8%
12.15
X/1
13%
6.02
X/2
9%
6.3
X/X
10%
6.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.3
2/2
17%
3.41
2/X
7%
12.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+3.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.2pp
35%
Under 2.5
31%
+4.1pp
65%
Over 2.5
69%
-4.1pp
64%
BTTS Yes
70%
-5.9pp
36%
BTTS No
30%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Tottenham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tottenham EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.58/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.65
+40% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
20.3 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Tottenham
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 1.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
324 Passes 445
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 1-2 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
13.05.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 1-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
01.01.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 0-2 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
09.04.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-4 HT 0-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
03.10.2021 Tottenham Tottenham 2-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
19.05.2021 Tottenham Tottenham 1-2 HT 1-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Aston Villa 0-4 Tottenham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
0-4
AWAY Tottenham
0.83 xG 1.55
31% Ball Possession 69%
10 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
239 Passes 647
79% Pass Accuracy 91%
21 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Tottenham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tottenham swept aside Aston Villa 4-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, over 2.5 goals (65%) landed while both teams to score (64%) missed.

On the day, Aston Villa had 31% of the ball to Tottenham's 69%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.83 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aston Villa and 1.50 for Tottenham.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Tottenham?

Aston Villa 0-4 Tottenham in the England - Premier League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Tottenham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 44%, draw 25%, Tottenham 32%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Aston Villa), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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