Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 10 Mar 2024

Liverpool
1-1 HT 0-1
Manchester City
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
36%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.49
2-3 Goals
35%
2.01
4-5 Goals
27%
2.66
6+ Goals
15%
6.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.57
1/2
9%
21.35
1/X
10%
12.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
7.46
X/2
10%
5.06
X/X
9%
5.79
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
17%
2.66
2/X
5%
12.35
Value flag · X/1 at 7.46 — our 20% vs market 9.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
30%
+10.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
45%
-9.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.9pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 49%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -28%
1.88/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.64
+83% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -15%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 440 · 83%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
20.2 Crosses 15.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Liverpool vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Manchester City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.27 xG 1.90
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
339 Passes 536
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 1-1 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
01.04.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 4-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
22.12.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 3-2 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK
16.10.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
30.07.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 3-1 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City İCS
16.04.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 2-3 HT 0-3 Liverpool Liverpool FAK

Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
1-1
AWAY Manchester City
2.70 xG 1.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
490 Passes 435
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool and Manchester City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Liverpool had 53% of the ball to Manchester City's 47%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.70 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Liverpool and 1.83 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City in the England - Premier League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 40%, draw 24%, Manchester City 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
10 Mar 2024
16:00 Aston Villa vs Tottenham Analysis →
17:00 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham Forest Analysis →
17:00 West Ham United vs Burnley Analysis →