Benevento 1-1 ACR Messina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.43
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.39
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 29% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
65%
-13.6pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.0pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benevento EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 17%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +8%
1.90/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/1.54
+11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
365 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benevento
1W-2D-0L
AWAY ACR Messina
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
05.11.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-1 HT 0-0 Benevento Benevento İTC
23.09.2015 Benevento Benevento 0-0 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
12.12.2014 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-1 HT 0-1 Benevento Benevento İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benevento
1-1
AWAY ACR Messina
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benevento vs ACR Messina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benevento and ACR Messina shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Benevento at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Benevento had 50% of the ball to ACR Messina's 50%, shots finished 7-15.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Benevento had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Benevento and 0.33 for ACR Messina.

What was the final score of Benevento vs ACR Messina?

Benevento 1-1 ACR Messina in the Italy - Serie C on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benevento vs ACR Messina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benevento win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Benevento 52%, draw 26%, ACR Messina 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Benevento), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benevento) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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