Crotone 1-3 US Latina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.52
6+ Goals
12%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 30% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
59%
-12.4pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.1pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crotone EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY US Latina EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.51/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.32
-13% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 203 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crotone
2W-4D-0L
AWAY US Latina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2023 US Latina US Latina 0-0 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
25.03.2023 US Latina US Latina 2-2 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
27.11.2022 Crotone Crotone 1-0 HT 0-0 US Latina US Latina İTC
07.05.2016 Crotone Crotone 1-1 HT 1-1 US Latina US Latina İTB
19.12.2015 US Latina US Latina 2-2 HT 1-0 Crotone Crotone İTB
24.01.2015 Crotone Crotone 2-1 HT 1-1 US Latina US Latina İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crotone
1-3
AWAY US Latina
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crotone vs US Latina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

US Latina saw off Crotone 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Crotone at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Crotone had 59% of the ball to US Latina's 41%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crotone had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Crotone and 1.00 for US Latina.

What was the final score of Crotone vs US Latina?

Crotone 1-3 US Latina in the Italy - Serie C on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crotone vs US Latina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Crotone 47%, draw 26%, US Latina 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crotone)
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