Greuther Fürth 1-4 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.76
Draw
32%
3.72
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
23%
2.81
6+ Goals
12%
7.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.29
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.4
X/1
14%
4.44
X/2
9%
8.75
X/X
9%
5.78
2/1
5%
20.9
2/2
11%
5.88
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.75
Value flag · 2/X at 13.75 — our 12% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
52%
-11.1pp
32%
Draw
23%
+8.4pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.46/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.77
+3% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
22.3 Crosses 10.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Elversberg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.90 xG 0.92
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
308 Passes 331
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 1-1 HT 1-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
1-4
AWAY Elversberg
0.98 xG 3.55
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 2
481 Passes 376
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg cruised past Greuther Fürth 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Greuther Fürth at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 55% of the ball to Elversberg's 45%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.98 to 3.55.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Elversberg?

Greuther Fürth 1-4 Elversberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greuther Fürth win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 41%, draw 32%, Elversberg 27%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Greuther Fürth) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Greuther Fürth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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