St. Pauli 2-0 Hertha Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.04
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.65
X/1
17%
4.03
X/2
9%
10.4
X/X
10%
5.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.4
2/2
12%
7.56
2/X
8%
15.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
St. Pauli win — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.63/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.60
+6% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
20.7 Crosses 14.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Hertha Berlin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.10 xG 0.71
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
360 Passes 436
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
49 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 1-2 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
17.07.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 2-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin HAZ
25.10.2016 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-2 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AFK
28.04.2013 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-3 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
19.11.2012 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
21.12.2005 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 1-2 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
2-0
AWAY Hertha Berlin
1.05 xG 0.36
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 6
479 Passes 318
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 8
30 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Hertha Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli got the better of Hertha Berlin 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had St. Pauli as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, St. Pauli had 58% of the ball to Hertha Berlin's 42%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.05 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hertha Berlin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for St. Pauli and 1.83 for Hertha Berlin.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Hertha Berlin?

St. Pauli 2-0 Hertha Berlin in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Hertha Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 50%, draw 23%, Hertha Berlin 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL2 More Germany - 2. Bundesliga
10 Mar 2024
15:30 Greuther Fürth vs Elversberg Analysis →
15:30 Kaiserslautern vs Osnabrück Analysis →