Once Caldas 2-1 Envigado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Envigado EU Bookmakers 23%
-12% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +4%
1.44/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.34
-35% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +32%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 73%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.4
23.4 Crosses 12.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Envigado
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.13 xG 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
319 Passes 256
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.09.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
01.04.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
21.09.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
27.03.2022 Envigado Envigado 1-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
06.11.2021 Envigado Envigado 1-2 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
06.02.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 3-1 HT 2-1 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
2-1
AWAY Envigado
0.91 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
303 Passes 257
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 6
16 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Envigado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas squeezed past Envigado 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 54% of the ball to Envigado's 46%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 0.91 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Once Caldas and 0.50 for Envigado.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Envigado?

Once Caldas 2-1 Envigado in the Colombia - Primera on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Envigado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 44%, draw 30%, Envigado 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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