Deportes Tolima 2-2 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.16/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.24
+1% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
17.0 Crosses 12.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.13 xG 0.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
288 Passes 298
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.03.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin CON CSA
15.09.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
02.04.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.08.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOLK
28.07.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-3 HT 1-3 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
11.07.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
2-2
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.36 xG 0.51
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
477 Passes 337
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima and Independiente Medellin shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 57% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 43%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.36 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.00 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?

Deportes Tolima 2-2 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 46%, draw 28%, Independiente Medellin 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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