Paksi SE 1-1 Debrecen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 10 Mar 2024

Paksi SE
1-1 HT 0-1
Debrecen
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Hungary - NB I – 2023/2024

Paksi SE vs Debrecen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 28% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paksi SE v Debrecen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Debrecen EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +20%
1.70/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/2.06
+10% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
427 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
20.3 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Paksi SE vs Debrecen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paksi SE
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Debrecen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.13 xG 1.75
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
212 Passes 332
66% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 1-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
27.09.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
06.05.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 0-0 HT 0-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
11.02.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 2-1 HT 0-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
10.09.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 1-0 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
20.03.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 0-1 HT 0-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC

Paksi SE 1-1 Debrecen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paksi SE
1-1
AWAY Debrecen
1.86 xG 0.70
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
262 Passes 217
63% Pass Accuracy 62%
37 Box Touches 25
35 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paksi SE vs Debrecen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paksi SE and Debrecen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Paksi SE at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Paksi SE had 55% of the ball to Debrecen's 45%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.86 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Debrecen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Paksi SE and 0.67 for Debrecen.

What was the final score of Paksi SE vs Debrecen?

Paksi SE 1-1 Debrecen in the Hungary - NB I on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paksi SE vs Debrecen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paksi SE win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Paksi SE 48%, draw 26%, Debrecen 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Paksi SE), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paksi SE) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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