Alianza Lima 1-2 Sporting Cristal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 29%
+11% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.48/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.49
-19% / +114% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
275 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 73%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
22.2 Crosses 11.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sporting Cristal
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.46 xG 1.09
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
211 Passes 352
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
09.07.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
05.02.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 3-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
31.07.2022 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
06.03.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
28.11.2021 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
21.11.2021 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
1-2
AWAY Sporting Cristal
1.53 xG 1.12
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 5
308 Passes 207
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
36 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Cristal squeezed past Alianza Lima 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Lima at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 58% of the ball to Sporting Cristal's 42%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.53 to 1.12 — on chances, Alianza Lima could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.67 for Sporting Cristal.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?

Alianza Lima 1-2 Sporting Cristal in the Peru - Premier League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 43%, draw 26%, Sporting Cristal 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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