Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
15%
4.17
X/2
7%
9.13
X/X
14%
5.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.25
2/2
14%
6.49
2/X
7%
14.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 26%
+7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
2.16/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.73
+22% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
21.5 Crosses 15.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.14 xG 1.35
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
352 Passes 289
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.03.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.08.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
13.02.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
15.08.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
07.05.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
0-2
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
2.06 xG 2.04
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
473 Passes 289
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Szczecin at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 60% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 40%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.06 to 2.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.83 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Pogon Szczecin 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 48%, draw 25%, Zaglebie Lubin 27%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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