FK Orenburg 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.36
6+ Goals
10%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.09
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
17%
4.5
X/2
12%
6.38
X/X
13%
4.2
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
12%
5.01
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.87/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/0.87
-2% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -64% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
23.5 Crosses 19.2
3.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.97 xG 0.70
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
498 Passes 161
83% Pass Accuracy 62%
35 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 4
07.10.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
06.11.2021 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS1
24.07.2021 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS1
24.03.2021 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-2 HT 0-2 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS1
27.09.2020 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
1-0
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 3
322 Passes 326
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg edged past Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FK Orenburg as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 50% of the ball to Baltika Kaliningrad's 50%, shots finished 9-14.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for FK Orenburg and 1.20 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

FK Orenburg 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - Premier League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 43%, draw 27%, Baltika Kaliningrad 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Orenburg), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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