Spartak Moskova 0-2 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 10 Mar 2024

Spartak Moskova
0-2 HT 0-1
Fakel
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Spartak Moskova vs Fakel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.27
6+ Goals
9%
21.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 35% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.32
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.7
X/1
17%
3.8
X/2
9%
8.88
X/X
14%
4.5
2/1
5%
26.5
2/2
9%
7.5
2/X
8%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.6pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.8pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.6pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spartak Moskova v Fakel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.51/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.30
-11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
377 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 72%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
19.2 Crosses 14.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Spartak Moskova vs Fakel Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Fakel
2.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
2.02 xG 1.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
351 Passes 146
75% Pass Accuracy 59%
35 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Fakel Fakel 2-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
11.03.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-2 HT 2-2 Fakel Fakel RUS
19.10.2022 Fakel Fakel 1-2 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
15.09.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-0 HT 2-0 Fakel Fakel RUK
27.08.2022 Fakel Fakel 1-4 HT 1-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS

Spartak Moskova 0-2 Fakel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
0-2
AWAY Fakel
1.26 xG 1.05
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
414 Passes 136
78% Pass Accuracy 57%
28 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 15
6 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel beat Spartak Moskova 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Spartak Moskova at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 68% of the ball to Fakel's 32%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.26 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.40 goals for Spartak Moskova and 1.20 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Fakel?

Spartak Moskova 0-2 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 45%, draw 31%, Fakel 25%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Spartak Moskova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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