Excelsior 3-1 Den Bosch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 Mar 2025

📅10/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
8.34
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 29% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.85
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.8
X/1
16%
4.04
X/2
7%
11.85
X/X
11%
6.36
2/1
8%
20.55
2/2
10%
9.37
2/X
5%
17.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-8.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.7pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.0pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +16%
1.93/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.61
+5% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
23.3 Crosses 15.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Den Bosch
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.63 xG 1.21
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
387 Passes 331
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
22.11.2024 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-3 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
01.11.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-2 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOK
04.03.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 4-0 HT 1-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
03.09.2021 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-5 HT 0-3 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
30.01.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 4-4 HT 2-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
23.10.2020 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
3-1
AWAY Den Bosch
1.38 xG 0.54
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
329 Passes 275
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Den Bosch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior beat Den Bosch 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Excelsior had 53% of the ball to Den Bosch's 47%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.38 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Excelsior and 0.83 for Den Bosch.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Den Bosch?

Excelsior 3-1 Den Bosch in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Den Bosch?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 55%, draw 24%, Den Bosch 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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