Den Bosch 0-3 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
39%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
22%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
7.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.15
1/2
7%
22.1
1/X
4%
12.9
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
7.94
X/2
14%
4.87
X/X
14%
5.5
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
17%
2.59
2/X
8%
12.55
Value flag · X/1 at 7.94 — our 18% vs market 9.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
27%
+8.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
39%
Away Win
48%
-8.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.0pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 51%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.26/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.09
+17% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 76%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
17.8 Crosses 25.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Den Bosch
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Excelsior
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
1.30 xG 3.11
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 5
330 Passes 372
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
01.11.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-2 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOK
04.03.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 4-0 HT 1-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
03.09.2021 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-5 HT 0-3 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
30.01.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 4-4 HT 2-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
23.10.2020 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
21.02.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 6-4 HT 2-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Den Bosch
0-3
AWAY Excelsior
1.96 xG 0.85
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
319 Passes 366
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Den Bosch vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior swept aside Den Bosch 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Excelsior made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Den Bosch had 48% of the ball to Excelsior's 52%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.96 to 0.85 — the balance of chances actually favoured Den Bosch.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Den Bosch and 3.67 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Den Bosch vs Excelsior?

Den Bosch 0-3 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Den Bosch vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Den Bosch 36%, draw 26%, Excelsior 39%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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