Helmond Sport 3-4 FC Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.75
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
11.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.85
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
17%
4.66
X/2
13%
6.79
X/X
7%
5.25
2/1
6%
23.85
2/2
13%
4.8
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.25
Value flag · 2/X at 14.25 — our 11% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.6pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +18%
1.41/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.01
+4% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
18.8 Crosses 18.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
3W-0D-3L
AWAY FC Eindhoven
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.08 xG 1.10
50% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 Passes 317
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.05.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
20.10.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-2 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
12.05.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
19.08.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
04.03.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
13.09.2021 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 3-2 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
3-4
AWAY FC Eindhoven
1.24 xG 1.80
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
350 Passes 213
77% Pass Accuracy 64%
22 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Eindhoven squeezed past Helmond Sport 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Helmond Sport at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 58% of the ball to FC Eindhoven's 42%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 1.24 to 1.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.17 for FC Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?

Helmond Sport 3-4 FC Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 41%, draw 26%, FC Eindhoven 33%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
22 Nov 2024
22:00 MVV Maastricht vs Dordrecht Analysis →
22:00 Vitesse vs Cambuur Analysis →
22:00 Ajax II vs Telstar Analysis →
22:00 VVV-Venlo vs Emmen Analysis →
22:00 PSV II vs Volendam Analysis →
22:00 Den Bosch vs Excelsior Analysis →