Leixoes 0-1 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 10 Mar 2025

Leixoes
0-1 HT 0-1
Tondela
📅10/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Leixoes vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.51
Over 2.5
45%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.17
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
5.04
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.9pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-7.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+7.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leixoes v Tondela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.09/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.15
-24% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.4 Crosses 19.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Leixoes vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Tondela
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.10 xG 1.61
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
287 Passes 291
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.10.2024 Tondela Tondela 2-1 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
03.03.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 1-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
07.10.2023 Tondela Tondela 4-2 HT 2-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
08.04.2023 Tondela Tondela 2-3 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
24.10.2022 Leixoes Leixoes 1-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
22.11.2021 Tondela Tondela 3-1 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POK

Leixoes 0-1 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes
0-1
AWAY Tondela
0.62 xG 2.36
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
245 Passes 208
69% Pass Accuracy 68%
30 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leixoes vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela squeezed past Leixoes 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 30% / 39% — and on the day Tondela made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Leixoes had 54% of the ball to Tondela's 46%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.62 to 2.36 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tondela's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Leixoes and 2.17 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Leixoes vs Tondela?

Leixoes 0-1 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 10/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 31%, draw 30%, Tondela 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5
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