Celje vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Celje v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals
Celje 1-2 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics
Fiorentina edged past Celje 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
As we said in the preview, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Celje had 54% of the ball to Fiorentina's 46%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.48 to 1.03 — on chances, Celje could feel hard done by.
What was the final score of Celje vs Fiorentina?
Celje 1-2 Fiorentina in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 10/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Celje vs Fiorentina?
Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Celje 32%, draw 24%, Fiorentina 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.