Cruzeiro 1-2 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 10 Apr 2025

📅10/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.34
Draw
27%
4.49
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.16
No Pick
61%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
3.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 32% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.59
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
20.85
X/1
17%
3.7
X/2
7%
17.8
X/X
12%
6.51
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
8%
16.55
2/X
9%
24.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
70%
-16.9pp
27%
Draw
19%
+8.0pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.3pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 14%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-54% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-2
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.46 xG 1.72
75% Ball Possession 25%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
533 Passes 117
88% Pass Accuracy 58%
24 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cruzeiro at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 75% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 25%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.46 to 1.72.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Mushuc Runa?

Cruzeiro 1-2 Mushuc Runa in the Copa Sudamericana on 10/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 53%, draw 27%, Mushuc Runa 20%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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