Lanus 3-0 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 10 Apr 2025

Lanus
3-0 HT 1-0
Melgar
📅10/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
53%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.62
Over 2.5
52%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.19
No
50%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.44
6+ Goals
13%
24.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.12
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.7
X/1
14%
3.87
X/2
7%
10.9
X/X
15%
4.45
2/1
13%
28.5
2/2
6%
10.1
2/X
5%
19.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Lanus win — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
58%
-9.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
42%
+9.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.9pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lanus EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 20%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
3.13/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/5.00
+80% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -67%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 71%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.2 Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lanus
3-0
AWAY Melgar
1.22 xG 0.29
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 5
236 Passes 494
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 6
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lanus vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lanus ran out comfortable winners over Melgar 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lanus as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lanus had 35% of the ball to Melgar's 65%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 1.22 to 0.29.

What was the final score of Lanus vs Melgar?

Lanus 3-0 Melgar in the Copa Sudamericana on 10/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lanus vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lanus win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lanus 53%, draw 27%, Melgar 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lanus), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lanus) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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