Le Puy 1-2 Aubagne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 10 Apr 2026

📅10/04/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
45%
1.72
4-5 Goals
17%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.09
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
21%
4.04
X/2
10%
9.88
X/X
8%
5.12
2/1
9%
23.1
2/2
8%
8.17
2/X EV+ ✗
13%
16.65
Value flag · 2/X at 16.65 — our 13% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.0pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Puy EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Aubagne EU Bookmakers 22%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.43/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.03
-13% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +38%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Puy
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Aubagne
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.11.2025 Aubagne Aubagne 1-4 HT 1-4 Le Puy Le Puy FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Puy
1-2
AWAY Aubagne
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Le Puy vs Aubagne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aubagne squeezed past Le Puy 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Le Puy at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Le Puy had 48% of the ball to Aubagne's 52%, shots finished 13-9.

What was the final score of Le Puy vs Aubagne?

Le Puy 1-2 Aubagne in the France - National League 1 on 10/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Puy vs Aubagne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Puy win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Le Puy 52%, draw 26%, Aubagne 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Le Puy) ✗ Under 2.5
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